Thirlwall law and exchange rate: An empirical analysis for the mexican economy from 2003 to 2012, through the cointegrated SVAR model methodology

From the stylized facts of the Mexican economy in the period 2003-2012, the validity is tested in the short and long term Thirlwall ‘s Law, by econometric technique of cointegrated structural var. In the model developed, it is considered that the real exchange rate is a variable that can have a sign...

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Main Authors: Arenas Díaz, Guillermo, Blando Ambriz, Alfredo Gabriel
Format: Artículo
Language: spa
Published: Universidad Autónoma de Ciudad Juárez 2015
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Online Access: http://erevistas.uacj.mx/ojs/index.php/noesis/article/view/67
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Summary: From the stylized facts of the Mexican economy in the period 2003-2012, the validity is tested in the short and long term Thirlwall ‘s Law, by econometric technique of cointegrated structural var. In the model developed, it is considered that the real exchange rate is a variable that can have a significant effect on the demand, as mentioned López and Cruz (1999). It should be noted that most studies that consider these variables, only analyze the long-term effects of Thirlwall’s Law itself, however, for this research, through the calculation of the impulse response can be economic inference about what happens in the short term economic variables. Finally, it supports the use of SVAR, methodology as this allows theoretical restrictions, which validates the growth model, constrained by the balance of payments, which proposes A. Thirlwall in 1979 and also confirms the hypothesis of the relevance of the exchange rate in the short-term growth in the Mexican economy.
ISSN: 2395-8669